Pathways - Originally published in April 2022
*For investment professional and institutional investor use only. Not for use with the public.
COVID-19 took an unprecedented toll on air travel, with global revenue passenger kilometres falling 66% in 2020.
Domestic air travel is recovering rapidly, although international travel is lagging, due to lingering restrictions and quarantine requirements.
Industry forecasts for air travel volumes appear too low, particularly if travellers now make up for any of the travel lost during the COVID-19 period.
The loss of travel due to the recently proven effectiveness of teleconferencing could amount to as little as 3.3% of volumes, or half of a normal year’s growth.
Growth in incomes remains the most important determinant of long-term volume growth. Price effects appear small at the national level.
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