Pent-up demand versus the zoom effect: How rapidly will global air travel recover?
Biggest crisis ever
COVID-19 took an unprecedented toll on air travel, with global revenue passenger kilometres falling 66% in 2020.
Domestic air travel recovering
Domestic air travel is recovering rapidly, although international travel is lagging, due to lingering restrictions and quarantine requirements.
Industry forecasts too low
Industry forecasts for air travel volumes appear too low, particularly if travellers now make up for any of the travel lost during the COVID-19 period.
Zoom effect likely small
The loss of travel due to the recently proven effectiveness of teleconferencing could amount to as little as 3.3% of volumes, or half of a normal year’s growth.
Income the long-term driver
Growth in incomes remains the most important determinant of long-term volume growth. Price effects appear small at the national level.